Pharma firms accelerate regional capacity building to secure GLP-1 supply and mitigate geopolitical risks: GlobalData

Regionalised glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) manufacturing investments and rising Middle East geopolitical disruptions are reshaping pharmaceutical supply strategies, pushing drugmakers to localise production, secure inventories, and build resilient Asia-focused capacity. The shift reflects intensifying demand for metabolic therapies and growing logistics risk, signaling a structural move toward geographically diversified manufacturing networks to protect launches, stabilise supply, and sustain long-term market access across markets, says GlobalData.

At the forefront of this trend is Eli Lilly, whose GLP-1 medicines and investments in Asia are helping shape the next phase of the market. The company’s new manufacturing plans in China and Japan are designed to strengthen local production for GLP-1 medicines, while conflict-related disruptions in the Middle East are sharpening industry focus on supply chain resilience and strategic stockpiling. Lilly has already stockpiled around $1.5 billion in orforglipron inventory ahead of a broader rollout ahead of the oral GLP-1 weight loss candidate, reflecting its wider strategy to secure availability of high-demand metabolic products and reduce launch-related supply risks.

Edita Hamzic, Healthcare Analyst at GlobalData, says: “Lilly’s latest investments show that the GLP-1 market is no longer being shaped by demand alone. Companies are now building geographically segmented manufacturing networks to serve local markets, manage policy pressures, and protect against disruptions that could affect access to critical medicines.”

The latest edition of GlobalData’s monthly “Bio/Pharmaceutical Outsourcing” report notes that Lilly plans to invest $3 billion in China over the next decade to build a more localised manufacturing and supply network for oral solid-dose medicines, including capacity linked to its Suzhou site and oral GLP-1 candidate orforglipron. The company is also working with CDMOs to support development and supply for the once-daily oral GLP-1, which is under regulatory review in China and has already received FDA approval in the US under the name Foundayo.

In Japan, Lilly will invest JPY20 billion ($126 million) in its plant in Kobe, adding production, warehousing, and digital and process upgrades by 2028. The two investments together reinforce Lilly’s push to build stronger regional supply networks across Asia, while keeping its US manufacturing plans aligned with domestic policy expectations.

Hamzic explains: “Building local manufacturing needs to be a commercial and operational priority if the return of recent GLP-1 shortages is to be avoided. Producing medicines closer to patients can reduce import dependence, shorten lead times, and improve compliance with local regulatory and labelling requirements. For Lilly, orforglipron is especially strategic because it opens the door to an early oral GLP-1 position in China, where competition remains limited.”

On the other hand, ongoing instability in the Middle East continues to threaten pharmaceutical logistics routes that connect Asia, Europe, and the Gulf, with major air-cargo hubs facing severe disruption. The situation is prompting drugmakers to monitor routes closely and protect access to temperature-sensitive products, biologics, and imported raw materials.

Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk is upgrading its Athlone, Ireland, site to produce tablet-form semaglutide for markets outside the US, Samsung Biologics and Lilly are establishing a Lilly Gateway Labs site in Incheon, and Aenova has expanded high-speed tube packaging capacity in Germany.    

Hamzic concludes; “The pattern is increasingly clear; pharma companies are building manufacturing capacity closer to demand centers while also insulating themselves from geopolitical shocks. Lilly’s China and Japan investments fit that trend, and the current Middle East situation is likely to reinforce it further across the sector.”