Bladder cancer market to reach $16 billion in 8MM in 2033, forecasts GlobalData

The bladder cancer market across the eight major markets (8MM*) is projected to grow from $3 billion in 2023 to $16 billion in 2033, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18 per cent, driven an increasing incidence of bladder cancer and a wave of therapeutic innovation across both non-muscle-invasive (NMIBC) and muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) segments, says GlobalData. 

GlobalData’s recent report, “Bladder Cancer: Eight-Market Drug Forecast and Market Analysis” reveals that the approval of novel intravesical therapies in NMIBC and antibody drug conjugates in MIBC is transforming the market.

One of the standout therapies, Pfizer’s Padcev (enfortumab vedotin), initially approved for patients with previously treated metastatic disease, has since been approved in combination with Keytruda as a first-line standard of care (SOC) after nearly doubling the median overall survival compared to traditional chemotherapy.

Israel Stern, Healthcare Analyst at GlobalData, comments,l “Padcev has redefined the metastatic bladder cancer treatment paradigm, shifting it from chemotherapy and immunotherapy-based approaches to antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs). This momentum could extend into earlier stages of disease, as the Padcev-Keytruda combination is now under investigation in the perioperative MIBC setting.”

Padcev is projected to generate $3.6 billion in sales by 2033. Meanwhile, other approved ADCs, such as Enhertu and Aidixi, target HER2-positive patients, and promising new toxin conjugates, like Bicycle Therapeutics’ nectin-4-targeting zelenctide pevedotin, are in development.

The NMIBC market is driven by therapies for patients who are unresponsive to BCG, (Bacillus Calmette-Guerin) the SOC for high-risk NMIBC. ImmunityBio’s IL-15 cytokine agonist Anktiva, approved in 2024, is forecasted to generate $840 million in sales in 2033. Johnson & Johnson’s innovative drug delivery platform for the sustained release of gemcitabine (TAR200) and erdafitinib (TAR210) provides improved drug exposure compared to traditional intravesical chemotherapy.

Stern continues: “Unlike conventional intravesical drug delivery, which often suffers from poor absorption and drug loss, sustained-release systems maximise drug retention and efficacy in the bladder and can significantly enhance therapeutic outcomes.”

Gene therapies are also gaining traction in NMIBC, particularly for high-risk BCG-unresponsive patients. Ferring Pharmaceuticals’ Adstiladrin is already approved, while UroGen Pharma’s detlimogene voraplasmid, a non-viral gene therapy encoding IL-12, is in late-stage development. Gene therapies are expected to exceed $2 billion in sales by 2033. Additionally, CG Oncology’s oncolytic virus cretostimogene grenadenorepvec, currently in Phase III trials, is being evaluated for both BCG-unresponsive and intermediate-risk patients.

Stern concludes: “Bladder cancer is evolving from a chemo-immunotherapy era to one defined by precision therapies, drug conjugates, and gene-modified agents. As the market grows more competitive and segmented by patient subtype and molecular profile, innovation will be the defining edge.”

*8MM- US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, China, and Japan