According to GBI Research, negligible growth can be attributed to the patent expiries of some of the therapy area’s most commercially and clinically important drugs early in the forecast period
The global cancer supportive care market, which covers chemotherapy-induced neutropenia, chemotherapy-induced anaemia, chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting, cancer pain, bone metastasis, and oral mucositis, is set to experience a low level of growth from $11.7 billion in 2015 to $12.4 billion by 2022, at a compound annual growth rate of 0.9 per cent, according to business intelligence provider GBI Research.
The company’s latest report states that this negligible growth can be attributed to the patent expiries of some of the therapy area’s most commercially and clinically important drugs early in the forecast period. These include Neulasta (pegfilgrastim), Aranesp (darbepoetin alfa), and Neupogen (Filgrastim), and their expiry will allow new biosimilars and generics to enter the market, which will lead to major markets decreasing in size.
Ross Wilkinson, Associate Analyst, GBI Research, explains, “Generics will be responsible for the market’s growth globally, as they will open up opportunities in low and middle income countries due to their lower prices. Amgen is currently market leader and will remain so over the forecast period. However, the expiration of some of the company’s products including Neulasta, Aranesp, and Neupogen will lead to a decline in revenue of $2 billion by 2022.”
In line with lost revenue, Amgen’s market share will decrease from 70.8 per cent in 2015 to 51 per cent by 2022. Additionally, despite 15.4 per cent of Amgen’s pipeline being made up of cancer supportive care products, none will be approved over the forecast period. The company’s Xgeva, which was approved in 2010, will be its only product to see its revenue increase during the forecast period.
GBI Research believes six companies will begin generating revenue from the cancer supportive care therapy areas by 2022, two of which are top 20 pharmaceutical companies. However, the most successful new entrant will be the small public company Heron Therapeutics, which will market two products in the therapy area – Aprepitant and Sustol. These are forecast to generate $206 million and $429 million respectively in 2022.
Wilkinson concludes, “Not only is the cancer supportive care pipeline relatively small compared to other oncology therapy areas, there are also no companies that are highly active in the pipeline. Each company has on average only one or two products in development, and of the companies with products in late-stage development, Pfizer and Amgen are the only two that are top 20.”