Semaglutide patent cliff to present substantial opportunity for companies in the Chinese generics market: GlobalData

Semaglutide, marketed as Ozempic for diabetes and Wegovy for obesity, ranked among the top-selling drugs globally in 2024. While patents protect the drug until 2031-2032 in seven major markets, China’s patent expires much earlier, in March 2026. Chinese pharmaceutical companies are aggressively preparing their manufacturing capabilities and regulatory approvals to capitalise on this multi-billion-dollar market opportunity, according to GlobalData.

China is experiencing a rapid increase in both diabetes and obesity prevalence, largely driven by factors such as urbanisation, changes in dietary habits, and increasingly sedentary lifestyles. Semaglutide’s proven efficacy in treating both conditions positions it well to address this growing health challenge.

According to GlobalData’s Pharma Intelligence Center, China’s diagnosed obesity cases are expected to grow from 163.34 million in 2024 to 165.20 million in 2031, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.89 per cent. Meanwhile, the diagnosed prevalent cases of type 2 diabetes are forecast to rise from 59.40 million in 2024 to 63.34 million in 2028, at a CAGR of 1.62 per cent.

Nadim Anwer, Pharma Analyst at GlobalData, comments, “The semaglutide patent cliff in China represents a paradigm shift that will broaden access to life-changing GLP-1 therapies while creating a new competitive landscape dominated by local players. It will drive increased competition and lower prices.”

Recognising this opportunity, multiple Chinese pharma companies have entered the generic semaglutide development race. According to GlobalData’s Pharma Intelligence Center, 16 companies are developing generic versions across various clinical phases (2 in pre-registration, 10 in Phase III, 2 in Phase II, and 2 in Phase I). Huisheng Biopharmaceutical and CSPC Pharmaceutical Group currently lead with pre-registration candidates, while United Laboratories, Huadong Medicine, Qilu Pharmaceutical, and others advance through Phase III, all competing for their share of the substantial Chinese market.

Anwer concludes, “Chinese drugmakers face a transformative opportunity once semaglutide’s patent protection ends, positioning them to lead the future wave of diabetes and obesity treatment within China. Winning this race demands superior production capabilities, precise timing for market launch, and strong regulatory expertise. Chinese manufacturers are well-positioned to challenge established players and drive the transition in China from monopolistic pricing to more dynamic market competition.”