The market for multiple sclerosis (MS) disease-modifying therapies (DMT) is set to experience moderate growth across the seven major markets (7MM*) from $18.9 billion in 2020 to $29.8 billion in 2030 at a compound annual growth rate (CARG) of 4.6 per cent, forecasts GlobalData.
GlobalData’s latest report, ‘Multiple Sclerosis: Seven-Market Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2030 – Update’, identified the potential launch of 10 new pipeline products as the main driver of the market’s growth. The superior efficacy and safety profiles of these therapies are expected to improve treatment rates and drive an increase in market size.
Barbora Salcman, Neurology Analyst at GlobalData, comments, “While the last two decades have brought many important advances in the management of MS with the approval of numerous DMTs, significant unmet needs still remain in the market, such as a lack of curative therapies and insufficient options for patients with primary progressive MS (PPMS).”
However, several late-stage pipeline products have the potential to address some of these unmet needs. For example, Bruton’s tyrosine kinase (BTK) inhibitors are a novel drug class in late-stage development for MS, with the potential to address unmet needs for improved efficacy and expanded treatment options for PPMS patients. Tolebrutinib is expected to be the leading BTK inhibitor by 2030, with forecasted sales of approximately $2.6B across the 7MM.
Salcman continues, “Key opinion leaders (KOLs) interviewed by GlobalData consider BTK inhibitors as a new way forward due to their good efficacy and safety. KOLs expect tolebrutinib to stand out in the market as it will have a first-mover advantage and will target all forms of MS.”
Despite this, tolebrutinib is only expected to be the third top-selling DMT in MS by 2030. The lead position will belong to Roche’s Ocrevus, which will generate sales of $6.3 billion in 2030, followed by Novartis’ Kesimpta with sales of $4.5 billion in 2030. Ocrevus and Kesimpta were first approved in MS in 2017 and 2020, respectively.
Salcman concludes, “Ocrevus’ position on the market is an interesting one, as even after patent expiry, the agent is expected to continue generating significant sales, due to its efficacy and reliable treatment**. This is despite increased competition from Kesimpta. Tolebrutinib has the potential to compete with these two agents, however, its commercial reach will be limited by the anticipated approval of three other BTK inhibitors, evobrutinib, fenebrutinib, and remibrutinib, within the forecast period. Notably, no curative therapies are expected to enter the market over the forecast period, creating opportunities on the market for companies looking to enter this space.”
* 7MM = US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan
** Ocrevus’ patent expiry is expected in 2029 in the US and in 2028 in Germany, France, Spain, the UK and Italy