Moderna’s vaccine Spikevax had forecast sales of $19.5 billion in 2022. However, increasing competition from Pfizer’s Comirnaty, Novavax’s Nuvaxovid, and COVID-19 therapeutics have forced GlobalData to slash Spikevax’s average annual sales forecast by 23 per cent between H1 and H2 2022 in its Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Sector Forecast reports.
Kevin Marcaida, Pharma Analyst at GlobalData, comments, “Currently, Spikevax is the second bestselling COVID-19 vaccine behind Pfizer’s Comirnaty, which is in the leading position with forecast sales of $37 billion in 2022. Despite this, GlobalData expects Spikevax vaccine market share to decline from 30 per cent in 2022 to just 16 per cent by the end of 2028.”
In 2023, Spikevax sales are expected to fall by 26 per cent, likely due to the increased competition from Pfizer’s Comirnaty, which had a strong year, gaining pediatric use approvals for 6-month to 11-year-olds in the US, Canada, and Japan. Furthermore, on 29 June 2022, it was announced that Pfizer won a $3.2 billion long-term supply agreement with the US, currently Spikevax’s largest market, which could lead to a loss in market share to Comirnaty.
Beyond 2023, potential new COVID-19 therapeutics are expected to disrupt the prophylactic vaccine market, with their oral formulations allowing these drugs to be administered at home with little to no medical supervision, with Spikevax being most impacted.
An analysis of GlobalData’s Drugs Database reveals that there are currently 148 therapeutics indicated for COVID-19 in late-stage development, which includes 12 drugs in pre-registration and 136 in Phase III development. One such therapeutic is PBI-0451, which is currently under development by Pardes Biosciences. The therapeutic is expected to be a strong entrant in late 2023 with forecast sales of $2.5 billion in 2028.
Marcaida concludes, “In the near term, Spikevax will remain a top-selling COVID-19 drug due to Moderna’s existing supply agreements with the EU and Canada. However, in the medium to long term, Spikevax could struggle to compete with direct competitors Comirnaty and new entrants such as COVID-19 therapeutics, which has led to the decline in Spikevax’s forecast sales.”
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