The burden of five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of HER2-Negative (HER2-) breast cancer is expected to increase at an annual growth rate (AGR) of 1.42 per cent from around 3.61 million in 2024 to 4.12 million in 2034 across the eight major markets (8MM*), forecasts GlobalData.
GlobalData’s latest report, “HER2-Negative Breast Cancer: Epidemiology Forecast to 2034,” reveals that the increase is partly attributed to an increased incidence of HER2- breast cancer, as well as increased survival rates of HER2- breast cancer patients due to modern medicine, combined with underlying demographic changes in the respective markets.
The prevalence of HER2- breast cancer is known to vary depending on the market region. According to GlobalData epidemiologists, the US had the highest number of five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of HER2- breast cancer in 2024, with 1.06 million cases, whereas Spain had the lowest number of prevalent cases at 146,000 cases.
Alia Rafiq, MSc, Epidemiologist, GlobalData, comments, “The increase in five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of HER2- breast cancer in the 8MM is the result of an increase in the ageing population, breast cancer survival (due to earlier detection and treatment advancements), and breast cancer incidence. This increased incidence can be attributed to improved screening programs as well as high prevalence of breast cancer risk factors.”
GlobalData epidemiologists also observed that though staging proportions are similar between the HER2- breast cancer subtypes HER2-/HR+ and HER2-/HR-, case proportions of stage IV five-year prevalent cases in the 8MM for 2024 were higher in HER2-/HR+ than HER2-/HR-, approximately 13 per cent and 8 per cent, respectively.
Rafiq concludes, “The lower proportions of stage IV cases in HER2-/HR- breast cancer are a result of lower survival rates of HER2-/HR-, due to it being a more aggressive breast cancer subtype compared to HER2-/HR+. This highlights the importance of monitoring those at risk of developing HER2-/HR- in particular, such as those with BRCA mutations, to ensure an earlier diagnosis of the disease to increase chances of survival.”
*8MM: The US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, Japan, and urban China.