Age-related macular degeneration market across 7MM set to reach $27.5 bn in 2031: GlobalData

The age-related macular degeneration market (AMD) in the seven major markets (7MM: the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, and Japan) is set to grow from $7.4 billion in 2021 to $27.5 billion in 2031, driven by the launch of longer-acting anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) therapies to treat patients with AMD, an increase in the number of people with AMD, and the availability of therapies for geographic atrophy (GA), which will increase the number of treatable cases of AMD, forecasts GlobalData.

GlobalData’s latest report, “Age-Related Macular Degeneration: Seven-Market Drug Forecast and Market Analysis – Update,” reveals that anti-VEGF therapies will continue to remain the dominant treatment modality for AMD during the forecast period. This theme is observed both in the currently marketed products as well as in the pipeline products that are currently in late-stage development for AMD, with companies focusing on reducing the treatment burden associated with these therapies.

Sara Reci, Senior Analyst at GlobalData, comments, “In interviews with GlobalData, key opinion leaders (KOLs) emphasised that the greatest unmet needs in the AMD space included the need for longer-acting anti-VEGF therapies, treatment for GA, less invasive drug formulations, early diagnosis of patients and increasing awareness of AMD, and availability or accessibility of specialists and patient wait times.”

Looking ahead, some of the current late-stage pipeline products for wAMD emulate what is currently on the market, employing the VEGF mechanism of action. This includes AbbVie and REGENXBIO’s RGX-314, Adverum Biotechnologies’ ixoberogene soroparvovec, Opthea’s OPT-302, EyePoint Pharmaceuticals’ vorolanib, Clearside BioMedical’s axitinib, Ocular Therapeutix’s axitinib SR.

As for GA, in addition to the two first therapies to be approved in 2023 for this indication—Apellis Pharmaceuticals’ Syfovre and Iveric Bio’s Izervay, there are three therapies in late-stage pipeline: Alkeus Pharmaceuticals’ ALK-001, which is a chemically modified vitamin A; Belite Bio’s Tinlarebant, which is a retinol binding protein 4 (RBP4) inhibitor; and Annexon’s ANX-007, which is a complement C1q subcomponent inhibitor.

Reci explains, “This will greatly benefit the AMD space, especially in the case of patients with GA who, prior to the launches of Syfovre and Izervay, did not have any pharmacotherapy treatment for their condition.”

Furthermore, the market is currently saturated with therapies that employ the intravitreal route of administration. Nonetheless, there are some therapies currently in the pipeline for both wAMD and GA that employ alternative routes of administration. For wAMD, the options include Ashvattha Therapeutics’ D-4517, which employs a subcutaneous route of administration, whereas for GA, options include Belite Bio’s Tinlarebant and Alkeus Pharmaceuticals’ ALK-001, both of which are administered orally.

Reci continues: “As these therapies can be self-administered, this will greatly reduce the treatment days, which is of paramount interest as most patients with AMD are older.”

Simultaneously, therapies with longer treatment intervals are a dominant trend in the AMD pipeline. GlobalData forecasts that highly anticipated high-dose Eylea (aflibercept 8mg) will ensure that Eylea retains a large market share within the AMD space throughout the forecast period, due to its potential shown in extending treatment intervals in clinical trials. Other examples of therapies that aim to provide longer treatment intervals include Adverum Biotechnologies’s ixoberogene soroparvovec, AbbVie and REGENXBIO’s RGX-314, and Ocular Therapeutix’s axitinib SR, among others.

Reci concludes, “While the AMD market is projected to grow in the forecast period across the 7MM, it may face some challenges. Throughout the forecast period, aflibercept and ranibizumab biosimilars are set to enter the AMD market during the forecast period, which will undoubtedly compete with their respective parent drugs, Eylea and Lucentis. Nonetheless, the launch of late-stage pipeline therapies with longer treatment intervals and less invasive routes of administration will undoubtedly be a driving force for market growth in the AMD space.”